SHFE tin prices remained rangebound at low levels during the night session, while spot market transactions remained sluggish, falling short of expectations [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on May 23, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) remained in a low-level sideways trend during the night session, continuing its downward momentum. The price slid to approximately 264,000 yuan/mt, a slight decrease of 0.59 from the previous trading day. Open interest decreased by 1,463 lots to 22,400 lots.

Macro: (1) China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): It is forecasted that retail sales of narrowly defined passenger vehicles in May will reach 1.85 million units, with 980,000 units being new energy vehicles (bullish ★). (2) Xiaomi Auto: Cumulative deliveries in 2025 reached 258,000 units, with over 28,000 units delivered in April (bullish ★). (3) TSMC and other producers have submitted recommendations to the US Department of Commerce, proposing exemptions for semiconductor-related tariffs (bullish ★). (4) Tariffs - ① Japan's Minister for Economic Revitalization: Will visit the US from Friday to Sunday this week for tariff negotiations. ② White House advisor Milan: Currently, there is no secret work being conducted on negotiations related to currency issues (neutral).

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Alphamin Resources Corp.'s Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 mt of metal tin from April 15 to May 11, 2025, achieving the expected processing recovery rate. Tin production commenced by processing raw ore stockpiles from the mine, initially from the Mpama North plant, followed by the restart of the Mpama South plant on April 19, 2025. Blasting and transportation of underground ore began in the last week of April 2025, with the mine development rate also increasing. Since the restart of the mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025 (bullish ★). (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations, and the demand for restocking at lower prices was somewhat released. However, transactions at higher prices remained sluggish (bearish ★).

Spot Market: Despite the decline in SHFE tin prices, the overall high prices suppressed the willingness to restock. Downstream solder, electronics, and home appliance enterprises, constrained by the high prices, only maintained just-in-time procurement. Traders reported that most transactions were concentrated in the low price range of 265,000-266,000 yuan/mt, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.